Tag: investing

  • For Professional Investors:  A Couple of Things You Should Know about Anxiety

    For Professional Investors: A Couple of Things You Should Know about Anxiety

    Anxiety:  Looking at the Psychology of Finance Through a Psychoanalytic Lens

    Fourth in a Series

     

    Anxiety is ubiquitous. It serves an essential function—alerting us to danger, to the need to reassess the environment, to act.

    It is a both  physical and emotional. Anxiety is a state of biological arousal that is actively communicating something to you: “Wake up, pay attention, get out of danger”.

    As with all other psychological phenomena I describe in this series, you can’t avoid anxiety—to do so would be akin to being a person who doesn’t experience pain, and is therefore very vulnerable to injury.  But by understanding it, knowing your personal anxiety-related idiosyncrasies, and learning to listen to and manage anxiety you can both use it and also avoid falling prey to mistakes anxiety can contribute to.

    Anxiety disorders develop when anxiety gets way out of hand, taking on a life of its own.  There’s often a genetic contribution to these mental health conditions that include panic disorder and OCD.  But in this post, I’m talking about “normal” anxiety that rises in everyone and anyone under certain conditions—and it can be pretty intense and still normal.

    Intense anxiety bordering on panic is incredibly uncomfortable.  Most of us will do anything we can to avoid it or stop it.  There’s nothing inherently wrong with this strategy, unless the avoidance-thing-you-do becomes a habit or leads you to ignore important incoming data.

    In moderate doses anxiety is alerting.  In large doses, it is disorganizing.  So, in addition to recognizing anxiety and it’s sources, you need to learn to assess your level of anxiety and act accordingly.

    Although we talk about different types of anxiety, the subjective experience is a final common pathway for multiple triggers or sources.

    In this post, I’m going to describe four kinds of anxiety that might be under your radar.  This is not meant to be an exhaustive list.  But these are some variations of anxiety that I think you should know about:

    Annihilation anxiety-Psychoanalysts consider this the most primitive and disorganizing kind of anxiety.  “Annihilation” refers to psychological, not physical undoing.  Under sway of this type of anxiety, you feel that you can’t get ahold of yourself, or you’re falling apart, or you’re losing your grip.  Things can feel unreal and fractured. The circumstances where this kind of anxiety might occur include emotional overload or an extreme amount of change or disruption, dislocation, or loss of customary supports.  Even positive events can be overwhelming in this way.

    Annihilation anxiety tends to be non-specific, so even with skillful introspection you’re not going to come up with a distinct cause or solvable problems. Consider this report from John D. Rockefeller, Sr., looking back on his early years building Standard Oil:

    “For years on end I never had a solid night’s sleep, worrying about how it was to come out…I tossed about in bed night after night worrying over the outcome…All the fortune that I have made has not served to compensate for the anxiety of that period”. (quoted in Titan, Ron Chernow, p. 122).

    A few things are striking about the Rockefeller quote. Notice that his anxiety is diffuse. He’s not worrying about this contract or that refinery, but, vaguely, “how it was to come out”.  And the intensity and pain of his anxiety is clear from the fact that it is still so vivid decades later, as well as in his statement that all his subsequent riches don’t make up for it.

    Annihilation anxiety’s primary value is to tell you that you are overwhelmed.  It doesn’t signal specific problems to solve.

    Narcissistic anxiety—I’ve never met a single person who doesn’t hate feeling humiliated, exposed or shamed.  Anxiety comes in to this picture in two ways.  First, each of us has a different threshold of tolerance for these experiences.  If you’re a person with a thin skin who is easily humiliated or often feels exposed, you’re likely to have chronic anxiety worrying that this very uncomfortable experience is about to occur.  This anticipatory anxiety can skew your decision making. The second entry point for narcissistic anxiety comes after you are embarrassed/humiliated/exposed by something dumb you did.  If you’re overly aware of or sensitive to what people might think, you’re going to lose focus worrying about how they are viewing you rather than collecting yourself and getting back to work.

    Traumatic anxiety- Here, I’m talking about real but not overwhelming traumatic experiences.  Trauma states occur when events override your customary coping mechanisms. We are vulnerable to traumatic states when events are unprecedented, unpredicted, unfamiliar, sudden.  During the height of Hurricane Harvey, the National Weather Service tweeted: “This event is unprecedented & all impacts are unknown & beyond anything experienced”.  To me, the NWS description of this level of uncertainty meant the forecasters there were subject to traumatic levels of anxiety, not to mention 1st responders and emergency managers.

    Idiosyncratic Anxiety –anxiety reactions that are unique to you. Some things are going to make you anxious that don’t make other people anxious.  I’m not talking about something clear-cut, like you are afraid of flying and others are not, but a subtler pattern of reactivity that stems from your individual temperament and psychological history.  Let’s say everyone acknowledges that the market is over-valued; prices are too high but they are still going up.  Your colleagues are on the boat still making money on the rising tide.  You’ve done well too, but have a much stronger urge than your peers to get out of your long bets before your stocks’ value has peaked.  The excitement seems crazy to you and makes you very, very nervous. The over-excited market correctly makes you anxious, sending a useful signal that this can’t last.  But your anxiety response may be a shade too strong if you especially can’t stand this kind of irrationality and you’re apt to pull the plug too soon.  Remember, anxiety is always a useful signal.  But you need to make sure that you don’t over-react or under-react to it.

    What you can do

    As with every psychology factor that can effect investment decisions, information and self-knowledge is the most important remedy.  Understand and accept that anxiety is normal and inevitable.

    See my blog post on self-reflection for some insights on building insight and self-awareness.

    If your anxiety has the characteristics of annihilation anxiety, the best immediate antidote is to do something concrete and manageable with a definable endpoint. Update your charts or your trading journal.  Organize your desk or your sticky notes. Cling to your routines and habits.  Don’t make decisions until you can think more clearly.  Get something to eat, drink a bottle of water, go to the gym.

    When your anxiety is related to humiliation or exposure, try a conversation with yourself.  Acknowledge that you hate the feeling of humiliation because, well, it’s just plain awful—but remind yourself you’ll survive.   Then look at your decisions carefully and see if any are being swayed by a desire to avoid being humiliated.  The point isn’t to get rid of the feeling, because you can’t, at least not in the short run.  The goal is to avoid compounding the problem by letting it lead you to bad financial decisions.  In the end, it’s better to make a good investment decision and risk being embarrassed than to make a bad one in a probably futile effort to avoid humiliation.

    Get to know yourself better so you are intimately acquainted with your idiosyncratic sources of anxiety.  Look carefully at how these patterns of emotional reactivity might be systematically tilting your investment decisions.  Add rules to your trading program to prevent yourself from making systematic anxiety-based errors.  Read more on the psychology of trading rules and why you will inevitably break them in this related post.

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    copyright September 2017

    Invantage Advising

    Other posts in this series:

    For Professional Investors:  Why You Won’t Follow Your Own Rules and What to Do About It

    Why Professional Investors Need to Understand the Concept of Disavowal

    Why Professional Investors Need to Understand the Concept of Regression

  • The Market Has Its Head Seriously in the Sand

    The Market Has Its Head Seriously in the Sand

    Article Posted on Linked-In Today

    As a psychoanalyst, I’ve been perplexed and amazed that the market has been on such a steady upswing, with the VIX, the well-known “fear index”, hitting record lows on July 26. And, CNBC reminded us, “Even before Wednesday’s move, the VIX had steadily fallen to lows not seen in more than two decades amid U.S. stocks’ steady climb higher”

    A prolonged period of placid growth has coincided with the most tumultuous, bizarre and unpredictable time in a half century of American history.

    Chuck Todd on MSNBC said tonight, “the Stock market went bonkers today” over reports that Gary Cohn might be leaving his position as President Trump’s Chief Economic Advisor. “Who will run the economy?” Todd asked rhetorically.

    I’ve been expecting the stock market to go bonkers every day since 9:00 pm on November 8, 2016. I told my clients to count on nothing but instability and craziness. I was wrong, but I shouldn’t have been. The market should have been afraid, because absolutely nothing was predictable, ordinary or similar to anything we’ve ever encountered in politics in America.

    How has anyone on Wall Street thought anything was stable or safe? That any person could be relied on to stay in the Trump administration? That Trump’s promised agenda regarding taxes and infrastructure was gong to sail through Congress? Apparently they wanted it to be true so they acted as if it was.

    I can only account for this by offering up for your consideration a psychoanalytic concept called “disavowal”. I described this defense mechanism in a recent blog post “Why Professional Investors Need to Know About the Concept of Disavowal”. I was writing about the necessity of knowing about disavowal for all investors at all times, not particularly focussed on this one strange moment in time.

    Here’s how I introduced disavowal:

    Disavowal is a psychoanalytic term that describes a sneaky and pernicious defense mechanism that leads to very risky foolish behavior. It is the fundamental mental flaw behind most white-collar crimes. Disavowal is one of the reasons people break their own well-thought out investing rules.   Disavowal is the prime mover in the dumbest stuff you’re likely to do.

    With disavowal, facts are accepted as true, but bizarrely, they have no impact on your decisions. It’s as if your mind has been split in two with a glass wall in between. On one side is a bunch of reality based facts, logic and awareness of consequences. You see it all. You know it all. On the other side is “you”, who really wants to do something, or believe something. The reality and known dangers hanging on the far side of the wall are disconnected from emotion and your motivational system, and therefore fail to have an impact on the decisions you’re making. You go ahead and do the Really Dumb Thing. 

    In the last 10 months, the Really Dumb Thing has been not being afraid.

    Famed investor Howard Marks, who understands the central role emotion plays in investing (especially as a source of mistakes!) borrowed the term “willing suspension of disbelief” from the world of theater to describe one of the key emotional gremlins that can lead the most experienced investor to do stupid things. In The Most Important Thing Illuminated, Marks writes, “Many times over the course of my career, I’ve been amazed by how easy it is for people to engage in willing suspension of disbelief…people’s tendency to dismiss logic, history and time-honored norms.”

    At a point in history where there is no history to use as a comparison point, when there are no norms, one would think that market fear would be at an all time high. I suggest disavowal is responsible for the fact that it’s not. Wall Street has stubbornly not wanted to know what it had to know. It was more exciting to think about corporate tax rates dropping, of forthcoming private contracts for huge infrastructure projects, or about a businessman, finally, in the White House, or of favorable trade deals.

    On the other side of that glass wall that people erect when they are employing disavowal were a lot of known but ignored facts–that Donald Trump was an unknown, that he was unpredictable, that the populist/authoritarian appeal that propelled him into office was an enormous threat to the basic American institutions that corporate America depends on. With disavowal, knowledge is split off from emotion and a subjective sense of reality. It just doesn’t feel real, relevant, important, or worth paying attention to despite the fact that a rational assessment would conclude that the consequences of ignoring reality could be dire.

    In the world of psychology, the employment of extreme disavowal has predictable consequences. There comes a moment of catastrophic reckoning, when reality catches up with the decisions that were made while ignoring it.

    copyright 2017 Invantage Advising