Category: All Invantage Posts

  • New Forbes Blog on Self-Awareness

    New Forbes Blog on Self-Awareness

    I’m delighted to join the team of contributors blogging for the Forbes leadership channel.  Take a look at my first post here. There are so many ideas that come from psychoanalysis, neuroscience, psychiatry and psychology that really have not been accessible to people in business, or translated for maximum utility for a top leader in business or finance.  There’s definitely interest and understanding that the psyche plays a role in business decisions.  But the vast majority of the psychological theory and advice available for business relies too heavily on cognitive psychology — though that has its place–and pop psychology.

    I want to bring complex, subtle, powerful information about how the unconscious mind effects  thinking and decision-making.  I want to delve into the odd, anomalous, irrational and passionate aspects of human activity.

    I’m convinced that this perspective has tangible financial value in helping decision-makers avoid costly (and often repetitive) errors.  I’m so grateful to Forbes for the platform to make that case.

  • Preventive Medicine for Family Firms

    Preventive Medicine for Family Firms

    Thanks to the The Family Firm Institute Practitioner for publishing my article on “Preventive Medicine for Family Firms Facing Predictable Stress Points”. I emphasize the value of getting negative emotions and fantasies out in the open and under discussion. The toxic potential of a transitional event dissipates with airing, continued awareness, deepening understanding, and some straightforward strategies.

    For many people, it is counterintuitive to bring up anticipated bad feelings, conflict, or possible negative outcomes. We want to hope for the best, not voice our fears and doubts. But in fact, it is much better to voice potential dangers and obstacles and agree to face them as a unified group.

    I focus on 3 key family enterprise stress points, events which are predictable. Knowing an event is going to occur in the normal course of things means you can implement some preventive measures to decrease emotional fall out. In the article, I look at three typical stress points in the life cycle of a family business: divisions in status, the “classic” mid-life crisis of 40-somethings, and the life phase I call “starting older”. Read the full article here.

  • Self-Reflection – An Essential Analytical Skill with a  Brief How-to Guide  for Professional Investors

    Self-Reflection – An Essential Analytical Skill with a Brief How-to Guide for Professional Investors

    Self-reflection:  Looking at the Psychology of Finance Through a Psychoanalytic Lens

    Fifth in a Series

    Self-awareness has tangible business benefits.  It allows you to know your what your blind spots are, what triggers an emotional over-reaction, what makes you risk too little or too much, what psychological state you’re in and what the implications of that are and when you’re fatigued or not functioning at your best. All these psychological elements can distort your assessment of a situation and deform your decision-making process. Self-awareness also allows you to know how you’re perceived by others, an essential aspect of every successful negotiation.

    While self-knowledge [i]comes more easily to some than others, there is a distinct, definable analytical process that leads to it—self-reflection.  Just like investors develop analytical skills to interpret activity and anomalies in the market, learning and practicing self-analytic techniques can help you develop a greater sensitivity to patterns, trends, and anomalies in your psychic state.  Self-reflection needs to be an ongoing mental process, operating most of the time in the background. It isn’t something you do on a fifteen-minute meditative break.

    Reflection and insight are the foundations of psychoanalysis. They are teachable skills that can be learned and honed over time.  Here is a how-to guide to get you started on penetrating the less accessible aspects of your own mental life.

    Practice these techniques:

    1. Practice turning your mental gaze inward and start asking yourself questions. What just happened? What am I feeling? What am I thinking?  Why did I do that?
    2. Try to let your mind loose—ask a question but don’t force an answer. Let a question like “What’s going on with me?” hover and see what comes to your mind.  Avoid quickly foreclosing on an answer because the first  answer is usually not the complete one.  See if images, memories or thoughts pop up in your mind.  If you are able to visualize your mind as a space, check the corners and out-of-the way spots to see if anything is lurking there in the shadows.
    3. Don’t rush to a conclusion. Always ask “What else could it mean/be/signify?”  “What else might have happened?”  Ask “If this conclusion is wrong, what could be the answer?”  Try reversing your assumption.  For example, if you think “I felt anxious because my manager was mad at me”, try reversing it to “I am anxious because I’m mad at my manager” and consider whether that feels right.
    4. Think associatively rather than in a linear manner. That’s how our emotional minds work.  One thought or feeling is linked to another in an ever expanding and deepening network.  Put something—an event– in the center of your mind—let’s say you broke one of your investing rules with bad results— and see what comes to your mind in relation to it. “I felt bored, and didn’t feel like waiting”.  Or “I was pissed that my numbers were bad and I just wanted a win”.    Do you remember Magic 8 Balls, where an answer would float to the surface?  It’s kind of like that.  Rather than the logical analysis we’re trained in, this is an exercise that allows different parts of your mind to make themselves heard.
    5. When you’ve hit on an important and “true” insight it’s likely to connect with a thunk— “Oh yeah that’s it.” There should be a mild physical and emotional response that is absent with other hypotheses.
    6. Once you think you’ve got something figured out (e.g. “I’m anxious because I’m angry”) go a step further. Ask yourself why that made you mad.  Repeat the process of letting your mind loose (see #2).  Rather than jumping to an answer, let your mind go and see what comes into it.
    7. Keep going to more and more layers. Start with the insight “I’m anxious because I’m angry”.  Then it occurs to you, “I’m angry because I was humiliated”.  Good progress.  Then, ask “Why was I humiliated to that intense degree?” Now you realize, “I was humiliated because I’m always extremely sensitive to exposure of a vulnerability”.  Now you’ve got a useful piece of self-awareness you can work with.  You know you can’t stand people seeing you as vulnerable, so you tend to overreact, become enraged; that makes you uncomfortable so you become anxious.  Once you’ve gotten this far, it’s much easier to accept the feeling and control your reaction.  You know, now, you hate being exposed as vulnerable, you’ll always be sensitive to that, but you’ll survive. This awareness gives you a chance to think before acting on your emotional reactivity.  What really does the damage is the anger, anxiety and consequent impulsivity, not the fundamental emotional sensitivity.
    8. Pay attention to sequences. Event>emotion>thought>emotion>action.  Or emotion>action>emotion>event. Knowledge about your personal repetitive thought/emotion/behavior patterns is extremely useful because it gives you the ability to interrupt a destructive sequence. To get a handle on habitual sequences, start with an action you regret, like breaking an investing rule.  Ask yourself what happened before that.  “I had a conversation with R, another PM, and he got me feeling competitive.  I wanted something to happen fast”. If you can identify that as a repetitive pattern, you can be vigilant, knowing that a conversation that makes you feel like you’re failing the competition is likely to lead to riskier bets.  Alert to that, you can block action-consequences the next time you meet R in the hall and he makes you feel small.  You’re basically substituting thought, in the form of self-awareness (understanding your emotional reactions) for impulsive action. The paradigm is “When I’m in this typical situation, I respond with this typical emotion which can lead to that typical action”.
    9. Learn about different broad-stroke states you experience over time. Many investors cycle through periods of elation/ excitement/optimism and pessimism/deflation.  Your mood cycles may or may not coincide with the market’s.  Recognize what emotional state you are in, and know it won’t last forever.  While you are in a given state, your thinking may be different.  The cognitive biases you are prey to may not be the same when you are in an elated, excited state as when you are in a pessimistic state of mind.  Learn how you think and make decisions in each different emotional state.
    10. Accept that you are not rational. No one is.  The point is not to make sense of your feelings or thoughts, but to get to know them.

    copyright September 2017

    Invantage Advising

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    [i] I am using self-awareness and self-knowledge interchangeable.  Take your pick.  Self-reflection is the means to that end.

    More Posts in this series:

    For Professional Investors:  A Couple of Things You Should Know About Anxiety

    For Professional Investors:  Why You Won’t Follow Your Own Rules and What to Do About It

    Why Professional Investors Need to Understand the Concept of Disavowal

    Why Professional Investors Need to Understand the Concept of Regression

  • For Professional Investors:  A Couple of Things You Should Know about Anxiety

    For Professional Investors: A Couple of Things You Should Know about Anxiety

    Anxiety:  Looking at the Psychology of Finance Through a Psychoanalytic Lens

    Fourth in a Series

     

    Anxiety is ubiquitous. It serves an essential function—alerting us to danger, to the need to reassess the environment, to act.

    It is a both  physical and emotional. Anxiety is a state of biological arousal that is actively communicating something to you: “Wake up, pay attention, get out of danger”.

    As with all other psychological phenomena I describe in this series, you can’t avoid anxiety—to do so would be akin to being a person who doesn’t experience pain, and is therefore very vulnerable to injury.  But by understanding it, knowing your personal anxiety-related idiosyncrasies, and learning to listen to and manage anxiety you can both use it and also avoid falling prey to mistakes anxiety can contribute to.

    Anxiety disorders develop when anxiety gets way out of hand, taking on a life of its own.  There’s often a genetic contribution to these mental health conditions that include panic disorder and OCD.  But in this post, I’m talking about “normal” anxiety that rises in everyone and anyone under certain conditions—and it can be pretty intense and still normal.

    Intense anxiety bordering on panic is incredibly uncomfortable.  Most of us will do anything we can to avoid it or stop it.  There’s nothing inherently wrong with this strategy, unless the avoidance-thing-you-do becomes a habit or leads you to ignore important incoming data.

    In moderate doses anxiety is alerting.  In large doses, it is disorganizing.  So, in addition to recognizing anxiety and it’s sources, you need to learn to assess your level of anxiety and act accordingly.

    Although we talk about different types of anxiety, the subjective experience is a final common pathway for multiple triggers or sources.

    In this post, I’m going to describe four kinds of anxiety that might be under your radar.  This is not meant to be an exhaustive list.  But these are some variations of anxiety that I think you should know about:

    Annihilation anxiety-Psychoanalysts consider this the most primitive and disorganizing kind of anxiety.  “Annihilation” refers to psychological, not physical undoing.  Under sway of this type of anxiety, you feel that you can’t get ahold of yourself, or you’re falling apart, or you’re losing your grip.  Things can feel unreal and fractured. The circumstances where this kind of anxiety might occur include emotional overload or an extreme amount of change or disruption, dislocation, or loss of customary supports.  Even positive events can be overwhelming in this way.

    Annihilation anxiety tends to be non-specific, so even with skillful introspection you’re not going to come up with a distinct cause or solvable problems. Consider this report from John D. Rockefeller, Sr., looking back on his early years building Standard Oil:

    “For years on end I never had a solid night’s sleep, worrying about how it was to come out…I tossed about in bed night after night worrying over the outcome…All the fortune that I have made has not served to compensate for the anxiety of that period”. (quoted in Titan, Ron Chernow, p. 122).

    A few things are striking about the Rockefeller quote. Notice that his anxiety is diffuse. He’s not worrying about this contract or that refinery, but, vaguely, “how it was to come out”.  And the intensity and pain of his anxiety is clear from the fact that it is still so vivid decades later, as well as in his statement that all his subsequent riches don’t make up for it.

    Annihilation anxiety’s primary value is to tell you that you are overwhelmed.  It doesn’t signal specific problems to solve.

    Narcissistic anxiety—I’ve never met a single person who doesn’t hate feeling humiliated, exposed or shamed.  Anxiety comes in to this picture in two ways.  First, each of us has a different threshold of tolerance for these experiences.  If you’re a person with a thin skin who is easily humiliated or often feels exposed, you’re likely to have chronic anxiety worrying that this very uncomfortable experience is about to occur.  This anticipatory anxiety can skew your decision making. The second entry point for narcissistic anxiety comes after you are embarrassed/humiliated/exposed by something dumb you did.  If you’re overly aware of or sensitive to what people might think, you’re going to lose focus worrying about how they are viewing you rather than collecting yourself and getting back to work.

    Traumatic anxiety- Here, I’m talking about real but not overwhelming traumatic experiences.  Trauma states occur when events override your customary coping mechanisms. We are vulnerable to traumatic states when events are unprecedented, unpredicted, unfamiliar, sudden.  During the height of Hurricane Harvey, the National Weather Service tweeted: “This event is unprecedented & all impacts are unknown & beyond anything experienced”.  To me, the NWS description of this level of uncertainty meant the forecasters there were subject to traumatic levels of anxiety, not to mention 1st responders and emergency managers.

    Idiosyncratic Anxiety –anxiety reactions that are unique to you. Some things are going to make you anxious that don’t make other people anxious.  I’m not talking about something clear-cut, like you are afraid of flying and others are not, but a subtler pattern of reactivity that stems from your individual temperament and psychological history.  Let’s say everyone acknowledges that the market is over-valued; prices are too high but they are still going up.  Your colleagues are on the boat still making money on the rising tide.  You’ve done well too, but have a much stronger urge than your peers to get out of your long bets before your stocks’ value has peaked.  The excitement seems crazy to you and makes you very, very nervous. The over-excited market correctly makes you anxious, sending a useful signal that this can’t last.  But your anxiety response may be a shade too strong if you especially can’t stand this kind of irrationality and you’re apt to pull the plug too soon.  Remember, anxiety is always a useful signal.  But you need to make sure that you don’t over-react or under-react to it.

    What you can do

    As with every psychology factor that can effect investment decisions, information and self-knowledge is the most important remedy.  Understand and accept that anxiety is normal and inevitable.

    See my blog post on self-reflection for some insights on building insight and self-awareness.

    If your anxiety has the characteristics of annihilation anxiety, the best immediate antidote is to do something concrete and manageable with a definable endpoint. Update your charts or your trading journal.  Organize your desk or your sticky notes. Cling to your routines and habits.  Don’t make decisions until you can think more clearly.  Get something to eat, drink a bottle of water, go to the gym.

    When your anxiety is related to humiliation or exposure, try a conversation with yourself.  Acknowledge that you hate the feeling of humiliation because, well, it’s just plain awful—but remind yourself you’ll survive.   Then look at your decisions carefully and see if any are being swayed by a desire to avoid being humiliated.  The point isn’t to get rid of the feeling, because you can’t, at least not in the short run.  The goal is to avoid compounding the problem by letting it lead you to bad financial decisions.  In the end, it’s better to make a good investment decision and risk being embarrassed than to make a bad one in a probably futile effort to avoid humiliation.

    Get to know yourself better so you are intimately acquainted with your idiosyncratic sources of anxiety.  Look carefully at how these patterns of emotional reactivity might be systematically tilting your investment decisions.  Add rules to your trading program to prevent yourself from making systematic anxiety-based errors.  Read more on the psychology of trading rules and why you will inevitably break them in this related post.

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    copyright September 2017

    Invantage Advising

    Other posts in this series:

    For Professional Investors:  Why You Won’t Follow Your Own Rules and What to Do About It

    Why Professional Investors Need to Understand the Concept of Disavowal

    Why Professional Investors Need to Understand the Concept of Regression

  • The Market Has Its Head Seriously in the Sand

    The Market Has Its Head Seriously in the Sand

    Article Posted on Linked-In Today

    As a psychoanalyst, I’ve been perplexed and amazed that the market has been on such a steady upswing, with the VIX, the well-known “fear index”, hitting record lows on July 26. And, CNBC reminded us, “Even before Wednesday’s move, the VIX had steadily fallen to lows not seen in more than two decades amid U.S. stocks’ steady climb higher”

    A prolonged period of placid growth has coincided with the most tumultuous, bizarre and unpredictable time in a half century of American history.

    Chuck Todd on MSNBC said tonight, “the Stock market went bonkers today” over reports that Gary Cohn might be leaving his position as President Trump’s Chief Economic Advisor. “Who will run the economy?” Todd asked rhetorically.

    I’ve been expecting the stock market to go bonkers every day since 9:00 pm on November 8, 2016. I told my clients to count on nothing but instability and craziness. I was wrong, but I shouldn’t have been. The market should have been afraid, because absolutely nothing was predictable, ordinary or similar to anything we’ve ever encountered in politics in America.

    How has anyone on Wall Street thought anything was stable or safe? That any person could be relied on to stay in the Trump administration? That Trump’s promised agenda regarding taxes and infrastructure was gong to sail through Congress? Apparently they wanted it to be true so they acted as if it was.

    I can only account for this by offering up for your consideration a psychoanalytic concept called “disavowal”. I described this defense mechanism in a recent blog post “Why Professional Investors Need to Know About the Concept of Disavowal”. I was writing about the necessity of knowing about disavowal for all investors at all times, not particularly focussed on this one strange moment in time.

    Here’s how I introduced disavowal:

    Disavowal is a psychoanalytic term that describes a sneaky and pernicious defense mechanism that leads to very risky foolish behavior. It is the fundamental mental flaw behind most white-collar crimes. Disavowal is one of the reasons people break their own well-thought out investing rules.   Disavowal is the prime mover in the dumbest stuff you’re likely to do.

    With disavowal, facts are accepted as true, but bizarrely, they have no impact on your decisions. It’s as if your mind has been split in two with a glass wall in between. On one side is a bunch of reality based facts, logic and awareness of consequences. You see it all. You know it all. On the other side is “you”, who really wants to do something, or believe something. The reality and known dangers hanging on the far side of the wall are disconnected from emotion and your motivational system, and therefore fail to have an impact on the decisions you’re making. You go ahead and do the Really Dumb Thing. 

    In the last 10 months, the Really Dumb Thing has been not being afraid.

    Famed investor Howard Marks, who understands the central role emotion plays in investing (especially as a source of mistakes!) borrowed the term “willing suspension of disbelief” from the world of theater to describe one of the key emotional gremlins that can lead the most experienced investor to do stupid things. In The Most Important Thing Illuminated, Marks writes, “Many times over the course of my career, I’ve been amazed by how easy it is for people to engage in willing suspension of disbelief…people’s tendency to dismiss logic, history and time-honored norms.”

    At a point in history where there is no history to use as a comparison point, when there are no norms, one would think that market fear would be at an all time high. I suggest disavowal is responsible for the fact that it’s not. Wall Street has stubbornly not wanted to know what it had to know. It was more exciting to think about corporate tax rates dropping, of forthcoming private contracts for huge infrastructure projects, or about a businessman, finally, in the White House, or of favorable trade deals.

    On the other side of that glass wall that people erect when they are employing disavowal were a lot of known but ignored facts–that Donald Trump was an unknown, that he was unpredictable, that the populist/authoritarian appeal that propelled him into office was an enormous threat to the basic American institutions that corporate America depends on. With disavowal, knowledge is split off from emotion and a subjective sense of reality. It just doesn’t feel real, relevant, important, or worth paying attention to despite the fact that a rational assessment would conclude that the consequences of ignoring reality could be dire.

    In the world of psychology, the employment of extreme disavowal has predictable consequences. There comes a moment of catastrophic reckoning, when reality catches up with the decisions that were made while ignoring it.

    copyright 2017 Invantage Advising